the broken typewriter

By Brad Brain

So, interesting times, eh?

Trump is not just threatening us with economy-squashing tariffs, he is even suggesting that our proud country should become yet another American state. We have a lame duck Prime Minister who won’t recall Parliament, which makes one wonder how effective our response can be. But then, at the last minute, we get a temporary tariff reprieve.

With all this as a backdrop, some people are nervous. Some people are wondering if this is a good time to invest. Concerns like this are valid.

Concerns like this are also not new. In fact, throughout modern history people have come up with reasons not to invest. Every decade has been marked by events that have made people fearful for their investments.

All the way back in 1929 Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale, said, “Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” Dr. Fisher, it turns out, was very much wrong.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a widely watched benchmark consisting of 30 of the biggest, best established, most profitable companies in the world. Nowadays the Dow Jones includes companies like Amazon, Coca-Cola, Apple, Wal-Mart and McDonald’s.

Going back to the 1930’s, when the Dow Jones at a level of 104, people were concerned about the Great Depression, the Spanish Civil War, and the beginning of World War II.

In the 1940’s, with the Dow Jones at a level of 131, people were concerned about the Fall of France, Pearl Harbour, post-war recession, and the U.S.S.R. entering into the nuclear age.

In the 1950’s, with the Dow Jones at 235, people were concerned about the Korean War, the Suez Canal crisis, Castro taking power in Cuba, and the Russians entering the space race.

In the 1960’s, with the Dow Jones at 616, people were concerned about the U.S.S.R. shooting down the U2 spy plane, the erection of the Berlin Wall, the assassination of JFK, and the escalation of the Vietnam War.

In the 1970’s, with the Dow Jones at 839, people were concerned about the largest trade deficit in U.S. history, the energy crisis, the steepest market decline in four decades, and staggering hikes in inflation, unemployment and the price of oil.

In the 1980’s, with the Dow at 964, people were concerned about interest rates being at an all-time high, deep recession, record federal budget deficits, and the Black Monday crash of October 1987.

In the 1990’s, with the Dow at 2634, people were concerned about the Gulf War, Irrational Exuberance, the Asia Crisis, and Y2K.

In the 21^st century we have faced challenges just as daunting as those faced in the 20^th century. The technology correction in 2000, the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the Great Recession of 2008, the Covid pandemic, etc.

The crises of 2025 will differ from the crisis of the past. But only in nuance, not in severity. The crisis of the day in 1962, with the Dow Jones at a level of 652 was the Cuban Missile Crisis, the closest the world has ever been to a nuclear war. What’s a tariff spat compared to the threat of extinction?

We have had so many really bad predicaments that, in time, we forget the predicaments that were only medium bad. Anybody still recall the Greek debt crisis? Back in the day it was front page news. Now, many people don’t know even remember it.

Through all this, Coca-Cola still sells soda, and they do it all over the world. Amazon will sell you almost anything you can imagine and have it delivered right to your door. Wal-Mart is open late, even on weekends. McDonald’s sells 6 million hamburgers per day. Apple brings out a new iPhone and everybody wants one.

That’s the stock market for you. A great company makes things that people want and need. When the company gets that right, the company becomes more valuable.

This is why, despite the World Wars, despite a global pandemic, despite a tariff dispute, over the last century the Dow Jones Industrial Average was gone from 100 to its present level of 44,556. Read that last sentence again and tell me that now is a bad time to be an investor.

Where will the Dow be in 10 days, or 10 months? I have no idea. But I have a pretty good idea where the Dow will be in 10 years.

Throughout history the best time to invest has been 10 years ago. The second-best time is today.

There really isn’t a bad time to make a good investment. But be cautious. There is also never a good time to make a bad investment. If you can’t tell the difference between a good investment and a bad one, then its best to talk to an investment professional.

Brad Brain. CFP, R.F.P., CIM, TEP is a Certified Financial Planner in Fort St John, BC. This material is prepared for general circulation and may not reflect your individual financial circumstances. Brad can be reached through www.bradbrainfinancial.com.