the broken typewriter

By Brad Brain

You have probably heard the expression You Only Live Once. It’s a sentiment that I both simultaneously endorse, and also totally oppose. Let me explain.

I absolutely believe that people should get out and have some adventures. Last week I went to the top of the full-size Eiffel Tower replica in Macau, China. The thing is, I just absolutely hate heights.

I am 37 stories in the air, with nothing keeping me from plunging to a horrific certain death other than what seems to be very thin metal. It’s a 360-degree view of terror, highlighted by the bright casino lights far below.

My beautiful wife is filming me with her phone, as I cling to the wall as far away from the railing as I can. She thinks its hilarious that her big, strong husband is cowering like the lion that saw a mouse. I am not amused at all.

So why would a guy who hates heights go to the top of the Eiffel Tower in Macau? YOLO.

The problem is that some people sometimes think it is a good idea to YOLO with their money. Taking a bet, often with money that they can’t really afford to lose, that they will be the one that could be the lucky lottery winner. That their some long-shot speculation could pay off, despite the very remote chances that will actually ever happen.

That, my friends, is not YOLO. It’s stupidity.

I was in Macau for a global financial services conference but, make no mistake, Macau is a gambling town. The casinos are as big as in Las Vegas. Maybe bigger. But Vegas is an entertainment capital too. Macau is all about the gambling.

Here’s how big this place is. The hotel I am staying at is so big that for the first three days I kept getting lost trying to find the right elevator. It’s so big that you need fifteen minutes to walk from your room to the conference center, which is in the same building. It’s so big that there is a golf course on the roof, complete with water hazards and sand traps. And this is only one of many casino resorts in Macau.

Macau is a gambling town, but I am only here for the conference. The simple reason why I don’t hit the casino while I am in town is because I am pretty sure that I will lose my money. And I don’t want to lose money.

Some of the casinos here are advertising 98 percent payouts on their slot machines. What that really means is that if you put in a hundred bucks you can expect to get ninety-eight dollars back. It’s impossible for me to get excited about those odds.

You see, what 98 percent payout really means is that sooner or later the casino ends up with all your money. All of it.

Think about this. When you put your money in, you only get a fraction of it back. That means inevitably the casino takes all your money. That’s all there is to it.

Sure, if you start with a big stake, or if you hit your numbers once in a while it might take a little longer for the casino to take all your money. But it is inevitable that they will. That’s what 98 percent payout means. Anybody who thinks they can beat those odds over the long term doesn’t understand the math.

This town- this immense, magnificent town, with hotels big enough that they can put a golf course on the roof – was not built on people winning in the casinos.

Sometimes people will come to me and say that they want to put their money in a high-risk investment. But that’s not what they actually want.

Risk is the chance of losing money. By definition, a high-risk investment means that there is a high chance of losing money. Nobody wants something that has a high chance of losing money.

What they really want is a high return on their money. This is the vitally important distinction. Risking your money is not the same thing as getting a high return.

I know you want a high return on your money. I want it too. And we can do that. But it’s hard to make money when you have a high chance of losing. Investing and gambling are not the same.

If you want to YOLO, go have an adventure. Don’t do it by gambling money that you can’t afford to lose.

Brad Brain. CFP, R.F.P., CIM, TEP is a Certified Financial Planner in Fort St John, BC. This material is prepared for general circulation and may not reflect your individual financial circumstances. Brad can be reached at www.bradbrainfinancial.com.